GDPNow US Forecast: Data on US Economic Growth
(Visualization of Historical US GDP Data, Source: World Bank)
GDPNow US is a nowcast of the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. This real-time estimate of the current quarter's economic growth is updated several times a month, based on the latest available data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and other sources.
The GDPNow US forecast is calculated using a bridge equation that combines monthly source data on GDP subcomponents, seasonality, and survey-based expectations. This methodology is similar to that used by the BEA, but employs more timely and detailed information.
The GDPNow US forecast has been shown to have a root-mean-squared error of 1.5 percentage points for advance estimates and 1.2 percentage points for final estimates, on average, over the past decade. This means that the forecast error is typically less than 2 percentage points, either upward or downward, from the actual GDP growth rate reported by the BEA.
However, the average error for the final GDPNow estimate has been higher in recent years, due to larger-than-usual revisions to the source data by the BEA. For example, in Q1 2021, the final GDPNow estimate was 9.5%, compared to the actual growth rate of 6.3% reported by the BEA. Nonetheless, the GDPNow forecast remains a valuable tool for tracking real-time changes in the US economy.
US GDP is composed of four main components: personal consumption expenditures (C), gross private domestic investment (I), government consumption expenditures and gross investment (G), and net exports of goods and services (NX). These components are combined in the expenditure approach to calculate the total value of goods and services produced in the US over a given period.
The GDP subcomponents used in the GDPNow US forecast include a more granular breakdown of these categories, such as retail sales, residential investment, and federal defense spending. By tracking changes in these subcomponents, the GDPNow forecast can identify specific drivers of economic growth or contraction in real time.
The GDPNow US forecast only provides estimates for the current quarter's GDP growth rate, not for future quarters or years. However, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta does provide a quarterly nowcast of the following quarter's GDP growth rate, based on the latest available data.
As of September 13, 2022, the GDPNow Q3 2022 nowcast is 3.7%, up slightly from the previous nowcast of 3.6% on September 9, 2022. This suggests that the US economy is continuing to grow at a moderate pace, despite ongoing concerns about inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The latest GDPNow US estimate, as of September 13, 2022, is 3.7% for Q3 2022.
The GDPNow US forecast is a nowcast of the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the current quarter, based on the latest available data.
The GDPNow US forecast does not provide estimates for future years, only for the current quarter's GDP growth rate. However, the BEA publishes annual GDP estimates with a lag of several months, based on comprehensive source data and revisions. The most recent US GDP growth rate for 2021 was 5.8%, according to the BEA's third estimate released in September 2022.